Turkish accession to the EU requires extensive and well focussedprogrammes to prepare the Turkish agrifood industry and the rural populationfor entryinto the European single market. This is one of the findings of a reporton the consequences for agriculture, food, rural areas and structural policyof Turkey’s accession to the EU, by a Wageningen University and ResearchCentre team. The report has been commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture,Nature and Food Quality. It aims to provide relevant background informationin the event that the European Union decides to begin accession negotiationswith Turkey.
Some of the conclusions of the report emphasise the need for intensive andwell managed programmes in a number of areas:
•Turkey’s accession to the European Union would imply a considerableeffort in adapting its institutions to support an effective and efficientfunctioning market economy in line with EU legislation and expectations.
•For a stronger and more competitive food supply chain, the Turkish farmingsector needs restructuring and food quality at every stage in the chain needsto receive more priority.
•The agricultural sector, which is currently highly protected, would bearthe heaviest adjustment burden when Turkey adopts EU policies and faces competitionfrom inside the European Single Market.
•A rural development strategy focused on education and non-agricultural jobcreation would be necessary to accompany pre- and post-accession adjustments.
•Despite current efforts to eradicate the most infectious animal diseasesthat are endemic in Turkey, a single market in all animal products, withoutinternal border controls between Turkey and the rest of the Union, is someyears away.
•At the same time, Turkey would be an interesting and growing market for theEuropean food processing and retailing companies, for both exports and foreigndirect investment.Institutional reform
The report acknowledges Turkey’s on-going progress in adapting itsinstitutional framework, and the various steps being taken, on a broadfront, to bring Turkey’s formal institutions and institutional bodiescloser into line with EU’s acquis communautaire. However, as regardsthe agricultural and food sectors, progress in adopting legislation andformal rules is typically accompanied by concerns about implementationand enforcement capacity. For instance, institutional arrangements concerninglabour and farming contracts, water use rights, land purchase/sale rulesand environmental impact regulations are still weak and not adequatelyenforced. The report highlights the weakness of Turkey’s extensionservice, which would be central in helping Turkish farmers to respect theenvironmental cross compliance conditions linked to the EU’s directincome payments.
On becoming an EU member, Turkey would adopt the Common Agricultural Policy(CAP). Turkey’s recent reform of its agricultural policies, at theinstigation of the World Bank, has been an important step towards alignmentwith the CAP. However, its current tariff structure for agricultural andfood products offers on average higher market protection than the commonexternal tariffs of the EU. Agricultural trade harmonisation between theEU and Turkey by 2015 will for the most part mean tariff reductions inTurkey. The largest downward tariff adjustments would be expected in theanimal product sector.
The greatest challenge for Turkey on the external front, however, wouldbe to develop the infrastructure, administrative capacity and commitmentnecessary for effective control of borders with its non-EU neighbours bythe time of accession. Tight border inspection is crucial for maintainingthe EU’s minimum standards for food products on the internal marketand preventing undetected movements of animals that may not comply withveterinary standards.
Key statistics
Turkey’s rural areas lag well behind urban areas in terms of percapita incomes, health provision and status, and education levels. Twoout of five Turkish people live in rural areas, one in three workers isemployed in agriculture and nearly one in five agricultural workers isilliterate. Productivity in the agricultural sector is low compared tothe average in the EU. The modernisation of Turkish agriculture will placea large adjustment burden on this vulnerable segment of the population.
Turkey’s accession would have important budgetary implications. Allestimates given here are expressed in 2004 euros. If Turkey enters theEU in 2015, agricultural market and price support, and direct income paymentsto Turkish farmers, are estimated to cost EUR 0.2 billion and EUR 3.4 billion,respectively. Rural development expenditure under the CAP would add a furtherEUR 1.6 billion. The largest budget item concerns payments arising fromstructural and cohesion policy, estimated at between EUR 9.5 and 16.6 billion.Twenty regions elsewhere in the EU are likely to lose eligibility for thesepayments after the entry of a large new member country with a low per capitaGross Domestic Product (GPD). Net receipts by Turkey from the EU budgetare estimated at EUR 11-18 billion. These estimates are somewhat lowerthan the numbers recently provided by the European Commission.
A major challenge is to design programmes for structural and cohesionspending that address some of Turkey’s specific weaknesses, suchas low levels of human capital and poor opportunities for non-agriculturalemployment in rural areas. Improving education provision, quality, accessand attainment levels, especially targeted to the rural population, isconsidered a key element of a pre-accession development strategy for Turkeyin the coming years, together with improved access to the labour marketfor educated young people.
NOTE FOR THE EDITOR
More information: Simon Vink, corporate communications manager WageningenUR, +31 317 482466 / +31 6 563831629 or simon.vink@wur.nl.The report will be made available on www.wur.nl. See alsohttp://www.socialsciences.wur.nl/aae/projects/Turkey/description.html for introduction to the research project and all chapters in one pdf document (2MB).