Project

Seasonal forecasting in Mainland Southeast Asia

This research aims to evaluate the impact of seasonal climate associated with the ENSO variations on crops and the hydrological system in Mainland Southeast Asia using seasonal climate forecast tools in combination with hydrological and crop models. The effective tools for climate forecast will be studied. At the same time, strategies for sustainable agricultural management will also be explored for the agricultural sector.

Introduction

Mainland Southeast Asia is an agricultural region where climate change may affect crop productivity, hydrological systems and livelihoods. Seasonal climate forecast is essential for stakeholders in these sectors for adaptation to climate variability. However, the understanding of climate variability impacts and the role of seasonal forecasts in mitigating these is not complete. This research aims to determine the feasibility of applying seasonal climate forecasts as an early warning system and for adaptation planning.

Objective

The research focuses on exploring the climate impact on Mainland Southeast Asia and potential applications of seasonal forecasts for both hydrological and agricultural purposes. Specifically, the aim is to investigate the feasibility of utilizing seasonal forecasts as an early warning system. The goal is to contribute to climate adaptation strategies in the region.

Method

The study will assess the performance of the seasonal climate forecast ECMWF System5 (SEAS5) will be studied. Subsequently, the application of SEAS5 on the VIC hydrological model and the WOFOST crop model will be evaluated. Adaptation methods based on the climatology, hydrology, and agricultural results derived from SEAS5, the VIC, and the WOFOST model will be provided.

(Expected) results

  • The performance of the seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) over Mainland Southeast Asia will be revealed.
  • The potential applications of seasonal forecasts for both hydrological and agricultural purposes will be presented.

Publications

Analysis of seasonal climate and streamflow forecasts performance for Mainland Southeast Asia. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-56