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7 Sep 2010
Unit:
LEI
 The study ‘Extension of the AGMEMOD model towards Turkey’ was carried out from September 2009 until July 2010 under the management of LEI , in cooperation with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS, Spain). With AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of agriculture at the EU Member State and Candidate country levels, the impact of a potential Turkish accession to the EU on food security in Turkey, the EU27 and its Member States is measured relative to its baseline outlooks.
In the pre-accession projection period the current agricultural and trade policy structures in the EU27 and in Turkey remain different and in place. However, under a scenario where Turkey accedes to the EU, agricultural policy in Turkey would under the acquis become defined by the CAP as operating in the EU at the time of accession. In modelling the impact of Turkish EU accession, this CAP policy replaces the baseline Turkish agricultural policy during the accession period starting in 2015.
Most results show that the principle impact of the Turkish accession on Turkish agriculture is the simulated reduction of domestic producer prices, which induces further market effects. The – mostly decoupled - CAP support payments will yield smaller incentives to increase production than those payments which Turkish farmers avail of under the baseline. Effects of accession to the EU will be mostly negative for crop producers (except for tobacco) in Turkey, whilst the consumers are expected to gain from lower market prices. In contrast, producers of sheep meat, broiler and dairy milk (lower feed costs compared to baseline) could gain from an accession.
Under accession, Turkey will influence the self-sufficiency rates of commodities at the EU level and those will affect EU prices relative to the baseline. In particular lower self-sufficiency rates for barley, maize, rice and cotton are expected to lead to higher EU prices. On the other hand, higher EU self-sufficiency rates for tomatoes, oranges, apples, poultry and sheep meat are expected to generate lower EU prices.
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