Impacts of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement on the Dutch economy

Carrico, Caitlyn; Berkum, Siemen van; Tabeau, Andrzej; Jager, Jakob; Plaisier, Nora


This study assesses the economic effects of the EU-Mercosur Agreement for the Netherlands. At the macroeconomic level, potential gains in GDP growth are estimated to be 0.03%, amounting to 287m euros, assuming a full implementation of the Agreement by 2035. At the sectoral level, the Dutch bilateral trade balance with Mercosur contracts for agricultural products (except for dairy), but substantial growth of the trade balance in the manufacturing and service sectors results in an overall positive net trade gain for the Netherlands. At the farm level, estimated income effects are positive for pig and poultry farms, close to zero for dairy and arable farms, and negative for beef and veal farms.