Foresight
This project aims to identify effective leverage points for transforming food systems activities by understanding the drivers and changes in food systems. Modelling and scenario techniques will be used at three main scales to support foresight on food system development from a diet perspective, while considering sustainability and climate change constraints.
First, dynamic micro-level models will be used to operationalize healthy diets and to understand their feasibility, affordability, convenience, and desirability. Farm household modelling will be used to understand the environmental, climatic, and economic trade-offs of focusing the food supply on optimized diets. At the meso-level, country/landscape-level modelling will build understanding of the drivers and interlinkages between diets, food systems, and agro-ecosystem conditions. Finally, macro-level modelling will aim at improving current global models being applied to trade, agricultural policy, biofuel policy, and climate change issues.
Publications Foresight
- Consumers discard a lot more food than widely believed: Estimates of global food waste using an energy gap approach and affluence elasticity of food waste
- Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale
- Foresight analysis paper‘Healthy Diets and Reduced Land Pressure: Towards a Double Gain for Future Food Systems in Nigeria’ (paper Zusanna Smeets-Kristkova)
- Food system metrics ' Improving diets through food systems in low- and middle-income countries: Metrics for analysis' (paper Mequ Melesse)