A high resolution modelling perspective on food security and streamflow over Southeast Asia

Summary

This thesis evaluates climate model performance in representing rainfall patterns in Southeast Asia, focusing on the rainy season and extreme rainfall events. It compares regional climate models (RCMs) using CMIP5 and HighResMIP datasets, assessing their accuracy in forecasting monsoon characteristics and extreme rainfall. HighResMIP models provide a more precise representation of monsoon onset, total rainfall, and extreme events, although biases in rainfall intensity remain. Accurate monsoon modeling is essential for agriculture, as delayed monsoons can reduce crop cycles.

The thesis also explores future climate projections, highlighting increased dry spells and extreme rainfall in regions like Sumatra, Java, Borneo, and Papua. These changes may lead to more frequent low-flow streamflow events, affecting water availability for agriculture. The analysis reveals significant challenges for rice production due to reduced rainfall and shorter rainy seasons, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Philippines. Adaptation strategies, including optimizing agricultural systems, are essential to mitigate yield losses.