Stefania Innocenti (University of Oxford): " Shaping Effective Climate Policy: The Role of Communication and Policymaker Perceptions".

Abstract:

While ambitious climate policies are essential for a successful transition to a decarbonized economy, policymakers often hesitate to implement them, likely due to concerns over voters’ resistance. In this talk, we will present insights from two studies that highlight the crucial roles of communication and policymakers' perceptions in shaping the implementation of climate policies.

In the first study, we conducted a large-scale online survey experiment with nearly 3,000 U.S. adults to explore how public attitudes toward carbon taxation are influenced by economic reasoning and social norms. Participants are randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions in a 2x2 design each receiving different video interventions. The first intervention (Norm) informed participants about the social norms in the U.S. regarding support for climate action. In the second intervention (Policy), we explained in simple terms how carbon taxes can reduce carbon emissions and their distributional effects when revenues are redistributed through lump-sum transfers. We also tested a combined intervention in which subjects see both information videos. While interventions that correct misperceived norms about climate action and/or explain the policy lead to an initial boost in support, the effects fade over time and do not translate into increased environmental donations. However, the combined intervention persistently reduces strong opposition by over 20%, suggesting that addressing multiple motivations can effectively shift the Overton window for climate policy. In line with this, we find that norm perceptions causally affect whether policy messaging is viewed as politically biased.

The second study focuses on policy actors’ perceptions of public opinion. Surveying nearly 200 officials attending the 2024 United Nations Environment Assembly, we find that individuals directly and indirectly involved in setting global environmental policies underestimate global public willingness to contribute to climate action by almost half. This indicates that those shaping environmental policies may have a stronger public mandate for ambitious policies than they realize.