Integration of climate, crop, and economic models
Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. Wageningen University & Research scientist and international colleagues investigated the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain, as models are not yet systematically integrated.
In nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, magnitudes differ significantly and depend on model structure. The topics that especially need improvement are the specification of endogenous yield effects, land use changes, and propensity to trade.