Interview

Interview Tobias van Kooten

"It’s won’t be easy to find solutions for responsible use and better protection of the North Sea." In this interview initiator Tobias van Kooten, scientist and group leader at the institute, explains what the hackathon is about, and what he aims to achieve.

It’s all about the math

Tobias van Kooten has over 20 years’ experience as a theoretical ecologist, which means he studies the effects of all kinds of human activities on the ecology of the sea, often using mathematical models and simulations to do so. His key expertise is in modelling the dynamics of fish and invertebrate populations and communities.

When asked if and how the research field has changed in an age of machine learning and artificial intelligence, his reply is that his field is yet to utilise the full potential of data science: “we can collect more data than we can properly analyse. So if you look at the revolutionary products and services in other domains, whether it is ordering a sandwich or booking a trip, there is a lot of data behind it. In academia we are still somewhat lagging behind. But we have been collecting good, high quality data for a very long time. The time is now here to better extract all relevant information from the data we have.”

It won’t be easy to find solutions for responsible use and better protection of the North Sea. We need to get a grip on complex social and ecological issues, which requires interdisciplinary approaches and out-of-the-box thinking. Tobias sounds optimistic and motivated: “All this knowledge and learning we are doing on relevant mechanisms, is going to be super relevant for other places in the world, where they are coping the similar problems.”

The cod is not coming back

The key focus for the hackathon is understanding and anticipating the effects of climate change. Climate change is rapidly warming the North Sea. Tobias: “For many the effects of climate change on land is more tangible, as we see pictures of dry lakes and burning forests in mainstream media. But climate change is also very real and happening in our oceans and seas.”

Various effects of this on many species are already visible. The underlying concern is that these changes may endanger the rich marine life and production sectors of the North Sea. An example of this, says Tobias, is that we don't have that much cod anymore, even though we have cut down fishing for this species for some time now. The cod is not coming back. This might be because the North Sea is getting warmer, and the food web is changing under the influence of climate change.

In this light, it was a very conscious decision to ask the North Sea Foundation [link to St Noordzee] as a partner for the hackathon. Tobias: “traditionally the focus or our research efforts lied on helping policymakers make substantiated decisions, for example regarding the design and implementation of fishing quota for the following year. The question however that we should really look at, is whether we will still be able to fish at all in 20 years? An ngo like the North Sea Foundation can help shift this focus within the policy-research realm. It’s good to have them on board.”

The ForeSea the Future Hackathon

The upcoming hackathon is part of a broader ambition of WUR to do more with data science and climate change and adaptation, which is the key focus of the ForeSea the Future Hackathon. It will offer participants access to a unique dataset that is suitable to be fed into algorithms to create predictive models.

Tobias: “We have been collecting structured data for fisheries and fisheries management since the 1950s, although it is very costly to gather and structure all of this data. For instance, we haven’t used these data for ecological research, but is actually very useful to better understand the dynamics of climate change”.

My research team, which consists of 12 researchers, is very motivated to support participants at the hackathon. Eleni and Gerben are our Chiefs Data and will offer participants assistance when they run into data problems. In addition, we will provide mentorship to each team, to offer marine ecology knowledge and expertise and help teams to arrive at sound and robust hypotheses and action perspectives. We are keen to make data scientists with all sorts of backgrounds feel at home at our Marine Ecology Hackathon.

On the availability of data

Eleni and Gerben will be disclosing more details on the data for the hackathon [link to interview]. In general, there is a lot of data available. However, not all data can be made available. Tobias: “We cannot share data of individual ships, such as position and speed to track exact movements. This type of data is only available in an aggregated form. Applying machine learning to such data would help to characterise behaviour of individual ships, and to optimise fishery practices based on the past decision making of fishermen.”

However, the world of fisheries is a very competitive one. It’s important to strike a balance between commercial and ecological interests. In the mean time we need to settle for some workarounds. There are aggregated data sources which relevantly calculate things like the spread of fishing pressure throughout the year, which we will be able to supply.

But Tobias is not concerned about a lack of data for the hackathon. The real challenge, he feels, is to find the right people to work with the data that is available: “There is a lot of buzz around machine learning and AI. But there are very few people that can actually do it. Let alone that master the combination of knowing what you are doing and what it is about. If the hackathon contributes in bringing together people from these two blood types, I will be a happy man. And more important still, good things might come from this event."

The future of North Sea fishing

Looking at the reality of climate change, how does a marine ecologist look at the future? Will there still be fishing in the North Sea in twenty years? Without hesitating, Tobias answers this question with a Yes. “We will see a couple of new fish varieties, and a lot is going to change. There will be more windmills, where fishing activities will look different. And economically, the fishing industry will go through a very tough time. Currently more than half of Dutch fishermen want to quit. They are not fishing up the Dutch quota, because the costs to go out and fish are simply too high.”

Tobias sees opportunities in the transition into a more sustainable model: “The North Sea cannot produce cheap fish in bulk at scale endlessly. We also need to look at negative side effects of current fishing practices, and take costs of fuel into account. Perhaps North Sea Fish should become a better priced niche product, highly valued for its taste and high dietary value. The current model for sole, which is more a demand driven ‘luxury’ fish, is a good example. Fishermen sell every caught sole, for a good price.”

Tobias: “I hope that the hackathon will contribute to new knowledge, to help making informed decisions, so we can move towards the future we want. A North Sea as a healthy ecosystem, balanced out against sustainable fishery practices.”

Want to know more about the upcoming hackathon? Stay tuned by dropping us an email at foresea-hack@wur.nl.