Conflicting Demands on the Natural Resources in Northern Sweden: A Participatory Scenario Development Study

doi:10.1142/S1464333219500170

Abstract
Globalisation strongly influences social, environmental and economic resources, especially in those territories characterised by a historical dependency on a single industry, as in the case of mining. Our study aimed to envision possible future development paths for the mining city of Gällivare, in Northern Sweden, using a participatory approach. Four different transformative narratives were developed depicting a wide range of choices along an ideal anthropocentric-wild gradient. Through applying complementary methodologies for social-ecological system assessment (e.g., Q-methodology, ARDI approach), the expected social, economic and environmental impacts of the scenarios were explored. Results highlight the conflicting demands on natural resources in Northern Sweden and provides a deeper understanding of different perceptions and potential societal acceptance of each scenario from local and nonlocal stakeholder. This paper contributes to local discussions on future development in the area as well as to methodological advancements by providing a framework for the creation of a participative decision-making arena in similar transformative contexts.

Keywords: Conflicting demands; land management; future scenarios; sustainable development; stakeholder perceptions; transformative narrative