Causes and Consequences of the 1877-1879 Drought and Famine in Northeast Brazil

In 1877-1879, droughts resulted in a famine in Northeast Brazil, and is responsible for around 500.000 deaths. Lack of rain led to widespread harvest failures in the semi-arid “sertão” region. The region's reliance on subsistence agriculture and the lack of adequate infrastructure compounded the crisis. State relief efforts were hampered by logistical challenges and inadequate resources, leading to widespread suffering and mass migrations to coastal cities and other areas with better access to food.

Despite its impact, it’s unclear why the drought and famine was so severe. While the disaster is considered the starting point of over a century of drought-mitigation policies in Northeast Brazil.

Project description

This research project seeks to explore the causes and consequences of the 1877-1879 drought in Northeast Brazil that resulted in the only recorded famine in Latin America in the 19th century. Approaches from across the social sciences are combined with novel historical evidence of this event to explore how societies cope with severe climate shocks, but also the consequences of climate shocks to society’s future resilience. To first answer why the drought the drought resulted in famine, this project reconstructs meso-level mortality. It then matches it to 1872 census population data and geographic data from various sources in a panel dataset to evaluate the role of food shortages in causing the famine. A follow-up investigation then seeks to assesses the impact of local migration on famine intensity during the drought with a comparative analysis of key parishes where the famine was most intense. To do so, a more detailed individual-level subsample of mortality is collected and used to analyse who was dying from famine. Lastly, to explore the consequences to future resilience, drought and famine.

To explore why the drought caused famine, new evidence at a meso-level and micro-level is used to explore mechanisms that link the drought with the famine, and the consequences of the famine in terms of societal transformability and adaptability.

Results

Results suggest the drought caused insufficient food availability, and deaths due to hunger were unavoidable. Excess mortality concentrated primarily in the regions surrounding Fortaleza and Recife, the capitals of the historical provinces of Ceará and Pernambuco.