COMBINED: An evidence-based project to combat biodiversity loss and improve climate change resilience

Climate Change, biodiversity loss, and political instability show the need for integrative, adaptive and transformative governance of the Dutch landscape to secure the future of nature and human well-being. The Dutch landscape is confronted with climatological changes, such as extreme drought, extreme rainfall, increased frequency of wildfires, and increased risk for pests. The species finding habitat in (semi-)natural areas may be jeopardized by the effects of climate change, in turn making these areas less resilient against disturbances. Currently, it is unknown how to manage the Dutch landscape so that the natural values of the landscape are protected against climate change and its ecological consequences.

Furthermore, it is necessary to understand how to re-arrange governance systems so they become more adaptive to social and ecological uncertainties and changes. Landscape management is increasingly complex as landscapes are confronted with a plurality of social and political demands, such as policy targets in national, European and global policy initiatives, economic values, and social values. All these demands and values are subjected to cultural and political changes that may conflict with institutional rigidness or even lock-ins. It is crucial to know how the relevant actors, such as managers, policy makers and broader public, respond to future uncertainties and the changes in landscapes and their management, and which social and political conditions determine the adoption of management strategies.

COMBINED seeks to find future policy pathways that steer towards multifunctional and climate resilient landscapes that answer a broad range of social and political demands. COMBINED focusses on three dominant landscapes in the Netherland: agricultural and (semi-)natural grasslands, dry to wet forest landscapes, and (peri-)urban landscapes. For each landscape, research goes into the interactions between climate change and biodiversity, policy and management, and social and political trends. Specially, COMBINED aims to 1) unravel how changes in biodiversity and climate interact in Dutch landscapes, 2) evaluate the effects of existing measures and strategies on biodiversity recovery, climate mitigation and adaptation, ecosystem services, and 3) identify what social, political and institutional obstacles influence the implementation of such measures and strategies and how they can be removed and by whom. Within the WUR, we focus on forest landscapes, and within FNP we specifically focus on objective 3 for forest landscapes.

A research team within FNP is working on the future governance of forest landscapes. The research will mainly go into future forest policy pathways for the Netherlands and forest management practices for the future. We will analyse how forest policy pathways have been shaped historically, focussing on which social and political trends influenced policy shaping and what role the future has played in these policy pathways. Furthermore, we will go into the social, political, and emotional engagement of forest managers, policy makers, and forest-users with forest future in the context of climate change. This will include human attachment to the forest landscape, the acceptability of policy changes in response to climate change, and the future-orientation of relevant actors. As such, shedding light on the social and political dimensions on forest futures and decision-making in relation to the future. Lastly, we will conduct participatory forest future scenario building to understand which forest futures are possible and desired, integrating the insights of the previous research elements.

Keywords: future scenarios, forest governance, political discourse, climate change, decision-making