Uncertainty in Bioeconomic Model for Tuna Fishery : Source, Harvest Strategy and Enhanced Information

Inadequate data collection of tuna fishery and high mortality of juvenile tuna as bycatch in the purse seine fisheries are major issues in Indonesian management of tuna stocks.

The main objective of this research is to investigate improvements of data collection and information in Indonesian tuna fisheries. Since Indonesia ratifies the Convention on the Conservation and management of HMS in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, it becomes a full member of the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC).

Firstly, I will identify sources of uncertainties in the Indonesian tuna fishery and estimate the range of uncertainties and their impact on establishing reference points using bioeconomic analysis. Secondly, I will estimate an optimal Harvest Control Rule (HCR) by including uncertainties in a dynamic programming model to obtain the expected value of the catch to determine the best management strategy. Thirdly, I will investigate the value of information (VoI) by assessing the effect of additional information on the determination of the expected value of the value of the stock. The VoI will be compared with the cost of obtaining that extra information to determine whether obtaining additional information is worthwhile. Lastly, I will investigate the effect of extra information in the case of Indonesia's attempt to comply the Conservation and management Measures (CMMs) of the WCPFC. Obtaining extra information, or improving data collection, denotes Indonesia’s compliance to CMMs of the WCPFC. Complying to CMMs of the WCPFC indicates Indonesia’s commitment and support to the commission for sustainable fishing practices.  

Research questions

  1. What are the main sources of uncertainty for tuna fisheries data in bioeconomic model and what the probability of observed data in the fieldwork to the model?
  2. What strategy of harvest to maximizes long-term fishing rents for tuna fishery given uncertainties?
  3. How can collecting additional information for the tuna fishery in study area enhance net fishing rents?
  4. What is appropriate analysis for enhanced information of tuna fishery in study area? And, what strategy for tuna management as a high migratory species from enhanced data and information in Western and Central Pacific Ocean generally and between Indonesia and neighbour countries especially?