Scenario analysis

Policies and strategies must be implemented to ensure consistency across the five societal challenges and to maximise synergies and minimise trade-offs over time. Since there are often different ways to set up and maintain inclusive and sustainable agri-food systems, we frequently rely on scenario analysis to assess alternative policy options.

This is a process of analysing possible future outcomes (sometimes called ‘alternative worlds’) assuming different variables such as climate change and socioeconomic developments. In other words, the scenario analysis, which is a major projection method, does not try to paint an exact picture of the future. Our current use of agricultural scenario analysis focuses
mostly on agricultural trade (Agricistrade), fisheries and aquaculture (SUCCESS) and food security strategies (FoodSecure), and these analyses have recently been expanded to also include nutritional outcomes (SUSFANS) and resilience to climate change (adaptation and mitigation in AgMIP, MACSUR and SIM4NEXUS).

Projecting food systems performance and coherence

In order to assess the state of the inclusive and sustainable economy over time, models are needed to project food system-related supply and demand, taking into account complex market interactions and the impact of a wide array of drivers of change as well as policies on a whole range of sustainability and inclusiveness outcomes. To support coherent policies related to the Paris Climate Agreement or the Sustainable Development Goals and the overarching challenges, the modelling frameworks that are currently used for national, European and global policy making need to be enhanced.