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Long-term scenarios for agro-food

Published on
March 20, 2012

LEI researcher Hans van Meijl participated in the 2012 AgMIP Regional Africa Workshop in Nanyuki, Kenya, January 16-20, 2012. He was involved in comparing long-term scenarios for agro-Food (2050) among the 11 key global models in the world.

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The global LEITAP model developed by LEI is one of the participating models next to models of  for example Worldbank, FAO, IFPRI, IIASA, USDA. The comparison study included 7 global general equilibrium models and 4 partial equilibrium models (see, table below). The development of agricultural world prices, production and land use are key focus points as scenario outcomes diverse widely for the long run among the various modelling groups. Do real food prices increase or decrease in the long run is key for the food security debate and the development of land use is key for the climate change and biodiversity debate. By running a baseline scenario the workshop identified the main stories for long-term changes in global agricultural markets. A next workshop brings together modelers, experts and stakeholders (policy makers, industry) and defines which scenarios are actually required to prepare appropriate decisions today for meeting the needs tomorrow. A focus will be on climate change related scenario‚Äôs. Results of the long run comparision AgMIP initiative will be presented at the Planet under Pressure 2012 Conference in London (26-29 March, 2012).

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