Planning Theory and Planning Methodology

Uncertainty Management in Strategic Choice

Uncertainty is a fashionable word in policy sciences to day. Modern science cannot take away risk and uncertainty in government. Scientists struggle with the concept of uncertainty because they want to speak truth to power. Acknowledging sources of uncertainty undermines the credibility of scientists in the eyes of politicians and citizens. The rise of the civil society and deliberative practices raises questions about normal science which is directed towards 'hard data' and neutral technical advise. In landscape planning and landscape design this neutral position is often challenged. Experts quite often provide contradictory evidence. Knowledge is traceable. Governments, pressure groups and powerful actors 'buy' experts who may corroborate their positions. The founders of the strategic choice approach in planning have acknowledged the importance of uncertainty in policy processes as early as the nineteen seventies. They discern three kinds of uncertainty: uncertainty about the environment (incomplete knowledge), uncertainty about values (lack of knowledge about the values and norms of participants in the planning process) and finally uncertainty about interrelated fields of choice (consequences of an intervention in field A for field B and C).

Now the development of uncertainty management techniques in strategic choice is a terra incognita in contemporary planning methods. The existing techniques are applied widely in practice but quite often without reflexivity.

The problem statement is a reconstruction of the concept of uncertainty and the development of uncertainty management techniques based on reading of the classics of strategic choice approach from the nineteen seventies until today. The goal is a re-valuation of the classic methods of uncertainty management in spatial planning and the opportunities for upgrading with techniques taken from actual risk analysis.

Contact: arnold.vandervalk@wur.nl