Statistical Substantiation of a risk-based National Animal Feed Plan

Each EU member state is obliged to have an official risk-based monitoring programme for animal feed. This project maps out the risks related to important animal feed raw materials and provides advice on sampling plans.


A key element of this project is the development of a calculation model for underpinning risk-based sampling for the Animal Feed National Plan. On the basis of various criteria, such as the quantity of important raw materials, the use of these raw materials in animal feed, the country of origin and the contaminant type, the model provides arguments for justifying decisions on how much and which animal feeds should be sampled.

The key input for the model is the analysis of trends that provide insight into developments and absolute levels of undesirable and prohibited substances and additives in animal feed and raw materials used in producing animal feed that can constitute a risk to food safety, animal health and the environment. This also involves looking into the origin of animal feed raw materials.


  1. Expert group opinion and advising the NVWA on the basis of the calculation model
  2. Expansion of the calculation model
  3. Modification of the analysis of trends using the new statistical method
  4. Analysis of GMO trends


The knowledge generated by this project provides arguments for justifying decisions on taking samples for the NVWA's Animal Feed National Plan. The knowledge from the calculation model is based on science and expert opinions. It enables the assessment of the origin of animal feed raw materials and the likelihood that they might contain a specific contaminant. Knowledge of trend analyses has been used in 2013 to generate periodically fast and simple updates for contaminants that are only accessible to affiliated members. The analysis results are supplied by the government and industry. In 2014, an improved statistical analysis method will be applied to one specific contaminant to provide insight into the underlying trend.