It is expected that worldwide the coming decades extremes in weather conditions will increase in both amplitude and frequency (more storms, droughts, frosts, etc.). In turn, this will have negative consequences on crop production.
At the moment it is uncertain in how far these negative consequences may be avoided through mitigation policies. Insight in uncertainties and quantification of the effects on crop production are therefore highly desired. In this project we look at possibilities to quantify these uncertainties and the propagation thereof on current and future crop production.
Climate change will worldwide affect both future yield potential and actual crop yields by variation in trends (CO2, temperature, precipitation) and variation in the properties of extremes (frequency, amplitude). Both effects contribute to yield gap changes.