Publicaties

Die Auswirkungen eines Brexits auf den Agrarhandel in den Niederlanden

Berkum, Siemen van; Jongeneel, Roel; Leeuwen, Myrna van

Samenvatting

The UK is an important market for the Dutch agri-food sector, 10 per cent of all Dutch agricultural exports find their way to the UK. In this article the effects of two possible post-Brexit trade scenarios on Dutch agricultural trade are quantified. Model simulations indicate that Dutch exports to the UK and the rest of the world will be affected only marginally under a Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the UK. A WTO scenario will have more, yet still relatively modest, impact on Dutch exports as a result of Dutch price competitiveness in the UK market. The agricultural production value in the Netherlands will decline by around 2 per cent, mainly because of declining prices that are the result of price pressure in the EU market as a consequence of Brexit-related trade distortions. Possible impacts of non-tariff measures on trade costs are not included in the quantification. However, the UK government could request quality and/or food safety conditions on imports that are different from the current EU trade conditions. Whether the UK will do so is yet unknown, and hence provides an enormous uncertainty to businesses engaged in trade with the UK.