Global ecosystem service values in climate class transitions

Watson, Lisa; Straatsma, Menno W.; Wanders, Niko; Verstegen, Judith A.; Jong, Steven M. De; Karssenberg, Derek


Ecosystem service assessments facilitate the valuation of nature and support decision-making. Ecosystem services are connected to climate; however, ecosystem service values affected by climate change remain unclear. We mapped global ecosystem service values totaling ∼1.3 trillion international dollars for 2005. Transitions in Köppen-Geiger climate classes projected with General Circulation Models under the four IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were modeled providing 20 climate scenarios. The mapped global ecosystem service values were combined with the 20 climate scenarios in order to identify where and how much of the global ecosystem service value is within a climate class transition. By 2050, 252-375 billion international dollars of ecosystem service value (20%-30% of total value) are in a Köppen-Geiger climate transition for both RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. In RCP 2.6, the 2015 Paris Agreement carbon emission scenario target, Köppen-Geiger climate transitions stabilize after 2050. However, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, ecosystem service values amounting to 467-632 billion international dollars (37%-50% of total value) are in a Köppen-Geiger climate transition by 2085. These results provide an inclusive global overview of climate change impact on evaluated ecosystem services that affect populations and economies.