Seminar

A dynamic minimax regret analysis of flood management strategies under climate change uncertainty with emerging information on peak flows - Seminar by T.D. van der Pol

Organisator Section Economics, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen
Datum

do 11 december 2014 12:30 tot 13:30

Zaal/kamer C78, Leeuwenborch (building No. 201)

Abstract

Decisions about investments in flood protection are often guided by considerations of regret. The ‘minimax regret’ decision criterion can be used to identify investments in flood protection which minimise worst-case regret. In this paper, we study the dynamic application of the minimax regret decision criterion to analyse flood management strategies under climate change uncertainty with emerging information on peak flows. We develop a procedure to implement the minimax regret decision criterion dynamically in a time-consistent manner and we develop a conceptual flood risk management model. The dynamic minimax regret procedure is applied to the conceptual model to study optimal dike investments and floodplain development. We compare the outcomes of static and dynamic minimax regret analysis, and we show that outcome differences originate from the flexibility in the dynamic model to adjust investments when new peak flow information emerges. Given the ongoing changes in climate change impact projections, we argue that a dynamic minimax regret analysis provides more robust results than a static minimax regret analysis of flood management investments.