A lunchtalk by Samuel Sutanto
The EU Horizon2020 ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events)is being carried out to improve the preparedness and capacity of response of European civil protection, water managers, and citizens to the impacts of natural hazards triggered by high-impact and extreme weather events. To achieve this goal, the project will develop and implement a Multi-Hazards Early Warning System (MH-EWS) at European scale using hydro-meteorological nowcasting and forecasting data, which will be tested in Pilot Sites across Europe. We will present some hypothetical examples of the drought forecasting products with 51 ensemble models, which are derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The drought forecasts will be launched online via the MH-EWS platform by the end of 2017. Future drought events are identified using the
well-known standardized methods (SPI, SPEI, SRI, and SGI for precipitation, precipitation-evaporation, runoff and groundwater, respectively), as well as the threshold method for precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and discharge. Daily ERA-Interim data with ~11km spatial resolution and Lisflood model outputs with ~5km spatial resolution are used to develop the database of probability distribution functions and threshold levels that will be used later together with forecasted hydro-climatological data for drought forecasting.