Modelling the additional costs for the risks of climate change effects in the Netherlands

Organisator Laboratorium voor Geo-informatiekunde en remote sensing

wo 11 februari 2015 09:30 tot 10:00

By Tim Heerema (The Netherlands)


Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the human exposure to flooding, drought and changes in temperature. This increase of flooding is also present in the Netherlands and the damage and costs per incidence of flooding have increased. To develop successful adaptation strategies against the different effects of climate change it needs to be investigated which effects are happening at what location.

In order to determine the importance and the location of the effects of climate change it is needed to translate the large scale effects of climate change into local effects. With the use of a spatial model based on the methodology of different models, such as the HIS-SSM model and the STOWA model, it is possible to translate the effects of climate change into costs for society. The difference between the costs of climate change in the future, compared with the costs in the present are called the ‘additional costs’ of climate change.

These additional costs of climate change are calculated for the entire Netherlands and investigated per climate change effect per municipality for different damaged sectors, such as houses, infrastructure and agriculture. The additional costs to replace pile foundation as a result of drought are the most costly for the Netherlands. The additional costs of flooding because of a dike breach are mostly present around the main rivers of the Netherlands. The additional costs of pluvial flooding for a return period of 25 years are higher than for a return period of 100 years. These flooding’s are present in the main cities of the Netherlands, similar as the effects of heat stress which are both related to the density of people in urban areas.