Project

Futures of ABC Woodlands and their gum/resin productions in Ethiopia: Analysis using Scenarios

This project (FRAME 5-middle of Fig. 1) aims to integrate the information generated from the four other FRAME projects (eco-physiology, ecology, socio-economics and landscape modeling) with additional information to be obtained from fieldworks to construct scenarios that depict the future images of the ABC woodlands and their gum resin production and attempt to draw management and use strategies that are needed to tune a sustainable and productive woodlands to the needs of the local communities.

Fig.1. A diagram showing the entire FRAME projects (projects 1-5) and the interconnectedness between the various sub-projects.
Fig.1. A diagram showing the entire FRAME projects (projects 1-5) and the interconnectedness between the various sub-projects.

The field of scenario construction is young, and therefore, the methodologies of constructing scenarios are progressively developing in various areas. In this project, we have a general idea of how to go for it, but we are equally eager to experiment the methodological approach to scenario constructions. Thus, methodologically we depend on learning –by –doing (action research) approach.

Furthermore, in this project we will construct scenarios at two scales: (i) local level in which local drivers will be considered– those factors operating at stand and landscape levels, and (ii) national level where broader socio-political, economic and other relevant drivers of woodland ecosystem changes will be considered. The two will be cross analyzed to understand how the factors (drivers) of woodland ecosystem changes play out across scale and reinforce each other to affect the state of the woodlands at the present and in the future. This will also assist in drawing the necessary policy recommendations on the alternative ways of managing and using the woodlands. The project, together with some of the other projects will also develop models that predict incense/gum yields at tree and stand levels and assess the multiple effects of grazing, fire, tree harvesting and tapping intensity on yields and woodland status.