A systems approach to the mitigation of tourism transport’s impact on the climate
By Paul Peeters The contribution of the tourism sector to greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase at a high rate where avoiding dangerous climate change requires a strong reduction. This unsustainable development of tourism and travel is mainly caused by the strong growth of the share of air travel and concomitant increases in travel distances.
To analyze the causes and find ways to effectively mitigate the emissions a series of system dynamic models has been developed to explore the developments until 2100. The model has been calibrated to the tourism and transport development between 1900 and 2005. Intermediate results show that the tourism-transport system shows some characteristics of a complex system. The final goal of the study is to explore optimal solutions that maximize the tourism economy while ate the same time reducing greenhouse gas to a sustainable level.