Climate change uncertainty in the Rhine basin

It is expected that climate change will increase the intensity and frequency of precipitation in the Rhine river basin. Precipitation directly influences high water levels in the river. Our research compared the results of a large ensemble of climate model simulations for discharge at Lobith and two case studies in Germany.

Promovendus Saskia van Pelt
Promotor prof.dr. P (Pavel) Kabat
prof.dr. BJM (Bas) Arts
Copromotor prof. dr BJJM van den Hurk
Organisatie Wageningen University, Water Systems and Global Change, Forest and Nature Conservation Policy

ma 27 januari 2014

The results for the German case studies show that flood risk will increase with 90% at the end of the 21st century, as compared to the current flood risk. Furthermore, the results show that a large part of the uncertainty spread can be contributed to natural climate variability. 

The contribution of natural climate variability to the total uncertainty of future changes in river discharge is underestimated by water managers
Saskia C. van Pelt

To communicate about these results we have used the 3D interactive game “Sustainable delta”. This game allows water managers to develop adaptation measures for a hypothetical river basin. The effects of these measures is calculated by a computer model, using climate change scenarios. The game fosters the understanding of uncertainties by water managers and directly shows the effects of the measures.