The H1N1 virus (‘vogelgriep’) is endemic in Asia and Africa. When humans get infected, the resulting disease may be fatal. The project aims at developing mathematical models for the spread of the virus.
Special attention has to be paid to incorporating the effects of vaccination. In particular, the role of mutants that are resistant against vaccination should be unraveled. The chance that such mutants develop is not yet known and should be estimated, e.g., via a stochastic simulation approach.
The resulting models should be validated against data from small chicken populations that are observed at ASG.