Modelling regional crop yield: the quest for the appropriate method

The application of modeling approaches such as crop growth simulation models, empirical models, and metamodels allow to assess a priori and/or future ranges of alternative scenarios of the regional yield patterns.

Promotor A (Tom) Veldkamp
Copromotor JJ (Jetse) Stoorvogel
dr. MM (Martha) Bakker
Organisatie Wageningen University, Soil Geography and Landscape

wo 28 augustus 2013 16:00 tot 17:30

Locatie Auditorium, building number 362
Generaal Foulkesweg 1
6703 BG Wageningen

However, a structured, systematic way of modelling-approach selection is lacking. In order to address this issue, this thesis developed a framework for recommendable practices to model regional patterns of crop yield.

To conclude:

  • Regional crop yield modelling is very sensitive to the choice of model-type and data used;
  • The outcomes of such modelling exercises cannot be properly used when the underlying decisions on model and data type and sensitivities are unknown;
  • Without this crucial knowledge regional crop simulation models can be easily misused by non-specialists;
  • Standard decision rules are proposed to document these choices in a standard format allowing cross comparisons of different approaches despite the often strong context dependency of the results.