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Probabilistic framework to estimate flood risk

Gepubliceerd op
19 november 2012

A new framework is developed for producing probabilistic flood risk estimates. The framework allows for the assessment of the probability distribution of flood risk under future climate scenario conditions.

We showed this for two case studies in the river Rhine basin. To do this, we used an ensemble of six (bias-corrected) RCM future simulations, complemented with 12 GCM future simulations. The GCM simulations were constructed by using a non-linear delta change approach. We resampled the simulations to 3000-year time-series, to be able to analyse extreme events. The hydrological HBV model was used to get daily discharges. To convert extreme discharges to estimates of flood damage and risk, we coupled a simple inundation model with a damage model. We then fitted probability density functions (PDFs) for the RCM, GCM, and combined ensembles. The framework allows for the assessment of the probability distribution of flood risk under future climate scenario conditions.



The article in the magazine H2O (In Dutch)


website of the magazine H2O (Dutch)