Climate Variability Challenges: The Utility of Seasonal Forecast for Mainland Southeast Asian Agriculture

Climate change is causing high climate uncertainty and threatening agriculture across Mainland Southeast Asia. To cope with the issue, communities need an early warning system to support adaptation actions. Seasonal forecast systems can predict weather patterns several months in advance, offering a powerful tool for users from the government level to local farmers. However, it was unclear how reliable these long-range forecasts actually are in this region. This research, therefore, evaluated the seasonal forecast system called ECMWF-SEAS5 to see its performance in predicting temperature and rainfall. Moreover, this research connected the seasonal forecast system with hydrological and crop models to see if they could predict water discharge and rice yield. The study found that the system successfully predicts weather, water discharge, and rice yields. Knowing this information ahead of time allows decision-makers and farmers to adapt and prevent the impact of a changing climate.