Hiding in plain sight – Revealing transmission dynamics through data-driven modelling of Usutu and West Nile virus

Mosquito-borne viruses are becoming an increasing threat to human and animal health. This PhD research investigates how two such viruses, Usutu virus and West Nile virus, emerge and spread in the Netherlands.

Computational models are combined with different types of surveillance data to uncover aspects of virus transmission that are difficult to observe directly. The research shows, for example, that species other than blackbirds likely play an important role in maintaining Usutu virus circulation. It also shows that climate change is expected to make future outbreaks larger and longer, and develops new methods to better distinguish past infections with Usutu and West Nile virus from antibody data.

Together, the studies demonstrate how combining models with imperfect real-world data can reveal otherwise hidden aspects of viral spread and help improve surveillance, preparedness, and decision-making for emerging mosquito-borne diseases.