An inquiry into the nature and historical roots of sub-Saharan Africa’s food import dependence.

In 1961, sub-Saharan Africa was largely self-sufficient in food. By 2020, nearly one-fifth of its calories were imported. This dissertation examines the nature and historical roots of this transition. Chapter 1 harmonizes the FAO’s ‘Food Balance Sheets’ into a single caloric series (1961–2023). Rising import dependence concentrates in cereals and oil crops; cross-country differences prove highly persistent. Chapter 2 shows that export agriculture did not displace West African food production: food imports rose fastest when export agriculture declined. Chapter 3 shows that after 1960, urban growth was no longer linked to hinterland suitability for food production. Chapter 4 traces 120 years of East African maize prices, which rose from about half the world market price to well above it. Policies aimed precisely at self-sufficiency helped make staple foods ever more expensive. Import dependence reflects a structural transition in food supply since 1960, centred not on a failure of African agriculture but on rapid urbanization, sustained by cheap imported calories.