Navigating Uncertain Futures: Applied Foresight Modelling and Anticipatory Governance for Food System Transformation

How do we make good decisions about food when the future is uncertain? Food systems must nourish people, sustain livelihoods, and protect the planet, among other objectives, yet no single policy can achieve them all. This thesis examines how scenarios combined with computer modelling can help decision-makers explore possible futures before committing to them.
Its six studies ask:
1.    What if Americans swapped beef for plant-based alternatives?
2.    Can the world grow enough fruit and vegetables for healthy diets?
3.    How would an African swine fever outbreak in China ripple through global food markets?
4.    Can investing in agricultural research reduce hunger in Africa?
5.    How might climate change reshape Southeast Asia?
6.    What could a global shift to healthy diets and sustainable production mean?
Models, the thesis concludes, are better for asking questions than predicting the future. Every intervention carries trade-offs, unintended consequences are the rule, and lasting impact depends on researchers and policymakers collaborating.