Can positive tipping points help save our climate and nature?

Tipping points are often associated with threatening changes in our climate and natural environment. Examples include the collapse of the Amazon rainforest or the melting of major ice sheets. Once a certain threshold is crossed, a small change can trigger a far-reaching process that is difficult or even impossible to reverse.

But tipping points do not necessarily have to be negative. Changes in society can also reinforce themselves, suddenly gathering momentum. Take the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, for example. As new technologies become more attractive, more people adopt them and policies adapt accordingly, a shift can occur that continues to accelerate.

Searching for positive tipping points

How do such positive tipping points emerge? And can we identify and harness them to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable society? These are the questions researchers will explore over the next six years as part of the GROUNDSWELL project.
The project has been awarded an ERC Synergy Grant of almost €10 million and is led by Marten Scheffer (Wageningen University & Research), Tim Lenton (University of Exeter), Johan Rockström (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and Elke Weber (Princeton University).

The researchers will focus on transitions in areas such as energy and food systems. They aim to understand which conditions enable societal transformations, how different changes can reinforce one another and where the greatest opportunities for positive tipping points lie. These insights could help governments and non-governmental organisations accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable future.
What can language and history teach us?

Within GROUNDSWELL, the Wageningen researchers will focus on two distinctive lines of research. First, they will analyse vast amounts of language data to identify shifts in public attitudes. Changes in how people think and talk about particular issues may provide early indications that a larger societal transformation is approaching.

In addition, the Wageningen researchers will work with historians to study a wide range of societal tipping points from the past. By systematically comparing transformations, both large and small, they hope to identify patterns that explain why some developments suddenly accelerate while others do not.

From Tipping out of Trouble to GROUNDSWELL

For Scheffer, GROUNDSWELL is a natural continuation of his recent book Tipping out of Trouble, published in Dutch as De Kanteling. In the book, he explores whether it is still possible to turn the tide on climate change and nature loss. His answer: yes, but only under certain conditions.

‘This project is the follow-up to my book that I had dreamed of,’ says Scheffer. ‘Over the next six years, we will investigate where the greatest opportunities for positive tipping points lie, so that governments and non-governmental organisations can put this knowledge to use.’
The project also means that Scheffer will return to Wageningen University & Research part-time after his retirement. ‘I never intended to stop working altogether,’ he says. ‘This gives me the opportunity to help others push the boundaries of research.’

Through GROUNDSWELL, the researchers ultimately hope to gain a better understanding of how positive societal transformations emerge and how they can be accelerated. Because if small changes can have major consequences, they may also offer opportunities to give our future a decisive push in the right direction.