Does the Netherlands feed the world? Study challenges a familiar view of Dutch agriculture

The study shifts the focus from gross exports to the Netherlands’ net contribution to food supply. It looks not only at the products the Netherlands exports, but also at the food, animal feed and agricultural land the country uses through imports from abroad.

Using an agroecological model, the researchers calculated how many people the Netherlands could feed using its own agricultural land. They also included the land needed for imported food and animal feed. The analysis shows that the Netherlands could produce the current diet of its own population from its own land, provided that products which cannot be grown in the Netherlands, or only to a very limited extent, are replaced by locally available alternatives. This would require all available agricultural land. There would then be no room left for food production for export, or for other societal goals, such as sustainable bio-based materials, bioenergy or more land for nature.

“If you only look at export value, you see just one part of the story,” says researcher Imke de Boer. “We examined what happens when you also look at land use and the import of food and animal feed. That shows that the Netherlands’ net contribution to the global food supply is very limited.”

Dutch agriculture uses around 1.6 million hectares of agricultural land within the Netherlands. In addition, current food production, consumption and exports require around 4.7 million hectares of agricultural land abroad. This land abroad is used to produce food and, above all, animal feed that the Netherlands imports.

This makes the picture more complex than export figures alone suggest. The Netherlands exports many agricultural products, but on balance it imports more calories and protein than it exports. From this perspective, the Netherlands is therefore not a net exporter of food energy and protein, but an importer.

Livestock farming plays a major role in this. Imported animal feed enables high animal numbers and the export of animal products. In a scenario without trade in animal feed, exports of animal products clearly decline, while dependence on agricultural land abroad falls sharply. In this way, the researchers show how closely the current export position is tied to land use outside the Netherlands.

The researchers also modelled several different diets. A diet based on the Dutch Wheel of Five dietary guidelines, a vegan diet or a land-efficient LEAN diet would require less agricultural land than the current Dutch diet. As a result, the Netherlands could in theory produce food for an additional 10 to 18 million people. But in that case, there would be no room for other societal goals, such as more land for nature, bioenergy or sustainable bio-based materials.

In the model, the LEAN diet uses the least land. This diet is largely plant-based, but still includes small amounts of animal products, such as dairy, fish, eggs and meat. These animal products mainly come from animals that use grass, residual streams and by-products: biomass that people cannot eat directly, or that does not come from land suitable for food crops.

The study is not an argument for abolishing food trade. Trade can be useful, for example when products cannot be grown in the Netherlands, such as coffee or citrus fruit. According to the researchers, future food exports should also be mainly plant-based. Animal products can fit within such a system if animals mainly eat regionally available biomass that is not suitable for direct human consumption.

“The Netherlands certainly has an important role in food and agriculture,” says De Boer. “But that role no longer lies in high-volume exports. Our strength may instead lie in planting material, knowledge and innovations that help other countries produce and consume food more sustainably.”

The study is a model-based exploration of theoretical possibilities. The researchers did not examine the economic consequences of different choices in agriculture, trade and consumption, or what those choices would mean for social wellbeing. The findings therefore mainly show what is possible from the perspective of land use, food flows and nutritional value, and where the current view of Dutch agriculture reaches its limits.

Read the scientific publication: Limited net-export capacity undermines the Netherlands’ ‘feeding the world’ narrative