Preparing for a more extreme climate in the Netherlands is inevitable

The study shows that climate change is having increasingly significant consequences in the Netherlands. Extreme heat, prolonged drought, and heavy rainfall are on the rise and can severely disrupt daily life. There is also a gradual rise in average temperatures and sea levels.

This affects virtually all sectors. For example, heat leads to health problems and lower labour productivity. Drought puts pressure on the availability of drinking water, the state of nature, and agricultural yields. Extreme precipitation can damage homes and infrastructure and lead to shortages of energy and communication services. Rising food prices and higher costs for healthcare, water management, and insurance will also directly affect citizens.

The researchers emphasise that the Netherlands faces far-reaching choices. Complete protection against climate risks is not possible. Therefore, it must be determined what level of protection is acceptable, who bears the costs, and which measures are prioritised. These are political choices that will determine the structure and functioning of the Netherlands in the future.

“The PBL report makes it clear that we must prepare now for what lies ahead,” says André van Lammeren, Managing Director of the Environmental Sciences Group at WUR. “Choices will have to be made about how we want to do that. But the adage ‘the sooner, the better’ is clear."

There are various ways to mitigate the effects of climate change. The report outlines two approaches. “Intensification” involves implementing technical and often local measures, such as air conditioning, sunshades, and infrastructure upgrades. These provide short-term relief, but it remains to be seen whether they will be sufficient in the long term. Moreover, they can increase inequality and require additional energy and funding. “Transformation” involves adjusting the layout of the Netherlands, such as incorporating more green spaces and water into cities and changing land use. This offers structural solutions but requires more significant changes, long-term investments, and a more proactive form of governance. The researchers believe that a combination of both approaches is necessary to make the Netherlands more resilient to climate change.

Researcher René Henkens: “Biodiversity and ecosystem services are important to society. Think of pollination by insects, water storage, and recreation in nature. But climate change affects the habitats of species. While this may benefit some species, it can harm many others. Nature-inclusive adaptation offers the best opportunities to preserve or even strengthen nature and ecosystem services, especially in the context of limited climate change. Policies that focus primarily on technical adaptations, such as water management infrastructure, contribute much less to nature conservation goals. In that case, the risks to nature and the vital services it provides us remain significant, especially in the event of severe climate change.”

A broad team at Wageningen University & Research analysed the impact of climate change on agriculture and recognised the importance of an integrated approach. “Summer droughts, for example, will occur more frequently,” explains project leader Sverre van Klaveren. “This will increase the demand for freshwater in many other sectors as well, precisely at times when drought is already causing problems. This shows that climate adaptation in agriculture is not only a challenge at the farm or plot level, but also requires decisions at the regional level.”

Fire geographer Cathelijne Stoof, who led the study on wildfires (conducted in collaboration with Deltares), notes that there are many opportunities to better integrate fire into the landscape and society, thereby limiting the potential consequences of wildfires and increasing resilience. “Current policy is primarily focused on fighting wildfires and, in some cases, prevention through warnings. An integrated approach based on multi-layered safety (awareness, prevention, mitigation, suppression, restoration) with strong collaboration between sectors is likely more effective than a technological approach.”

Major investments are planned for the coming years, including in housing, infrastructure, and energy. The report warns that if climate adaptation is not factored into these plans, future damage and costs could be significantly higher. By taking climate risks into account now, adaptation can be combined with other priorities, such as housing, nature restoration, and the energy transition.

Even with additional measures, some consequences of climate change remain unavoidable. That is why it is also essential to increase societal resilience. Governments, citizens, and businesses must be better prepared for disruptions and crises caused by extreme weather. This requires investments in areas such as knowledge, warning systems, crisis management, and awareness.

Read the reports, in Dutch, from Wageningen University & Research here:

• Agriculture
• Nature
• Wildfires