MARINA - Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seAs

Strokal, M., Kroeze, C., Wang, M., Bai, Z., & Ma, L. (2016). The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs): Model description and results for China. Science of the Total Environment, 562, 869-888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.071(the first version of the model for China)

Ural-Janssen, A., Meers, E., Ros, G. H., Vingerhoets, R., & Strokal, M. (2025). Mitigating nutrient losses in Europe: Synergistic solutions for air and water pollution by 2050. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 222, 108472. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108472

Micella, I., Kroeze, C., Bak, M. P., Tang, T., Wada, Y., & Strokal, M. (2024). Future scenarios for river exports of multiple pollutants by sources and sub‐basins worldwide: Rising pollution for the Indian Ocean. Earth's Future, 12, e2024EF004712. https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2024EF004712 

Zhang, Q., Li, Y., Kroeze, C., Xu, W., Gai, L., Vitsas, M., Ma, L., Zhang, F., & Strokal, M. (2024). A global assessment of glyphosate and AMPA inputs into rivers: Over half of the pollutants are from corn and soybean production. Water Research, 261, 121986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.121986

Bak, M. P., Micella, I., Jones, E. R., Kumar, R., Nkwasa, A., Tang, T., van Vliet, M. T. H., Wang, M., & Strokal, M. (2025). Future river exports of nutrients, plastics, and chemicals worldwide under climate-driven hydrological changes. Environmental Research Letters, 20(9). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf860

A Multi-pollutant modelling framework for sources, risks and interventions to reduce future pollution in Africa’s rivers - Wageningen University & Research

Optimizing Nutrient Budgets for Clean Water in Europe - Wageningen University & Research

Demonstrating innovative pathways addressing water and soil pollution in the Mediterranean Agro-Hydro-System - Wageningen University & Research

PhD in Multi-scale Water Quality Modeling for Climate Resilient Wastewater Management - Wageningen University & Research

Probabilistic modeling of microplastic transport and risks across scales - Wageningen University & Research

Modelling river export of nutrients for the Yangtze - Wageningen University & Research

Exploring Agricultural Green Development (AGD) solutions and their effectiveness by developing a new integrated approach for decision support: A case study on environmental pollution control in Erhai Lake in Yunnan Province - Wageningen University & Research

Terrestrial nitrogen flows and their impacts on the nearshore coral reefs of Hainan Island, China - Wageningen University & Research

Another season, another cocktail: Modelling seasonal effects of lake retention on river export of pollutants - Wageningen University & Research

Agricultural Green Development Pathways for Food and Clean Water in China - Wageningen University & Research

Multi-pollutant assessment of water quality and food production for agricultural green development in China: an integrated, multi-scale modelling approach - Wageningen University & Research

Inventive forecasting tools for adapting water quality management to a new climate - Wageningen University & Research

Modelling the effects of bio-based fertilizers use on air and surface water pollution at sub-basin and European scales - Wageningen University & Research

Human activities on land emit several pollutants to rivers and seas. The pollutants then form a cocktail that interacts in terms of common sources, biogeochemical interactions, and combined impacts. Hence, we developed the MARINA-Multi model, which integrates knowledge from the other themes (nutrients, plastics, pesticides, antibiotics and other chemicals) into an overarching multi-pollutant approach for river sub-basins. The models aim to quantify inputs of these multiple pollutants to rivers and their river exports by sources for the past, present, and future. We develop cross-scale model applications for countries, continents and the globe.  

Examples of model applications

Strokal, M., Bai, Z., Franssen, W., Hofstra, N., Koelmans, A. A., Ludwig, F., Ma, L., van Puijenbroek, P., Spanier, J. E., Vermeulen, L. C., van Vliet, M. T. H., van Wijnen, J., & Kroeze, C. (2021). Urbanization: an increasing source of multiple pollutants to rivers in the 21st century. npj Urban Sustainability, 1(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-021-00026-w

Li, Y., Wang, M., Chen, X., Cui, S., Hofstra, N., Kroeze, C., Ma, L., Xu, W., Zhang, Q., Zhang, F., & Strokal, M. (2022). Multi-pollutant assessment of river pollution from livestock production worldwide. Water Research, 209, 117906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2021.117906

Zhang, Q., Kroeze, C., Cui, S., Li, Y., Ma, L., Strokal, V., Vriend, P., Wang, M., van Wijnen, J., Xu, W., Zhang, F., & Strokal, M. (2024). COVID-19 estimated to have increased plastics, diclofenac, and triclosan pollution in more than half of urban rivers worldwide. Cell Reports Sustainability, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2023.100001

Micella, I., Kroeze, C., Bak, M. P., & Strokal, M. (2024). Causes of coastal waters pollution with nutrients, chemicals and plastics worldwide. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115902

Bak, M. P., Micella, I., Jones, E. R., Kumar, R., Nkwasa, A., Tang, T., van Vliet, M. T. H., Wang, M., & Strokal, M. (2025). Future river exports of nutrients, plastics, and chemicals worldwide under climate-driven hydrological changes. Environmental Research Letters, 20(9). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf860

Bak, M. P., Kroeze, C., Janssen, A. B. G., & Strokal, M. (2024). Modelling future coastal water pollution: impacts of point sources, socio-economic developments & multiple pollutants. Environmental Research Letters, 19(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad489c

Pesticides are commonly used to protect crop yields and ensure food security, but may have adverse ecological effects in water systems. Pesticides enter rivers through multiple pathways, including agricultural and urban runoff and sewage systems. The MARINA-Pesticides model focuses on pesticide-related water quality associated with agricultural activities. The model aims to quantify inputs of pesticides to rivers and their river exports to seas (under development) by sources for the past, present, and future. We develop cross-scale model applications for countries (e.g. China), continents (e.g. Europe), and the globe.

Examples of model applications

Zhang, Q., Li, Y., Kroeze, C., Xu, W., Gai, L., Vitsas, M., Ma, L., Zhang, F., & Strokal, M. (2024). A global assessment of glyphosate and AMPA inputs into rivers: Over half of the pollutants are from corn and soybean production. Water Research, 261, 121986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.121986

Antibiotics are a commonly used medicine, but even low residues in rivers may pose risks for antimicrobial resistance and have ecotoxicological effects on aquatic life. Antibiotics enter rivers through multiple pathways, including livestock-excreted antibiotics in manure that are used as organic fertilizers in agriculture, and human-excreted antibiotics that are discharged into rivers from sewage systems. The MARINA-Antibiotics model focuses on antibiotic-related water quality. Antibiotic pollution occurs through multiple pathways, including antibiotics from livestock manure that enter the environment via the application of organic fertilizers in agriculture, and human-excreted antibiotics that are discharged into rivers from sewage systems. The model aims to quantify inputs of antibiotics to rivers and their river exports to seas (under development) by sources for the past, present, and future. We develop cross-scale model applications for countries (e.g. China), continents and the globe.

Examples of model applications

Zhang, Q., Li, Y., Kroeze, C., van de Schans, M. G. M., Baartman, J., Yang, J., Li, S., Xu, W., Wang, M., Ma, L., Zhang, F., & Strokal, M. (2025). More inputs of antibiotics into groundwater but less into rivers as a result of manure management in China. Environ Sci Ecotechnol, 23, 100513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2024.100513

Nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, are essential for terrestrial and marine life on Earth. However, excessive nutrient loads (i.e. eutrophication) may result in harmful algal blooms, oxygen depletion and a loss of biodiversity. Understanding nutrient flows is thus important for managing aquatic and human health. The MARINA-Nutrients models focus on nutrient-related water quality. The models aim to quantify inputs of nutrients to rivers and their river exports to seas by sources for the past, present, and future. We develop cross-scale model applications for lake watersheds, countries, continents, and the globe.

Examples of model applications

Strokal, M., Kroeze, C., Wang, M., Bai, Z., & Ma, L. (2016). The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs): Model description and results for China. Science of the Total Environment, 562, 869-888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.071(the first version of the model for China)

Chen, X., Strokal, M., Van Vliet, M. T. H., Stuiver, J., Wang, M., Bai, Z., Ma, L., & Kroeze, C. (2019). Multi-scale Modeling of Nutrient Pollution in the Rivers of China. Environ Sci Technol, 53(16), 9614-9625. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b07352

Chen, X., Strokal, M., Kroeze, C., Ma, L., Shen, Z., Wu, J., Chen, X., & Shi, X. (2019). Seasonality in river export of nitrogen: A modelling approach for the Yangtze River. Science of The Total Environment, 671, 1282-1292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.323

Wang, M., Kroeze, C., Strokal, M., Vliet, M. T. H., & Ma, L. (2020a). Global Change Can Make Coastal Eutrophication Control in China More Difficult. Earth's Future, 8(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001280

Chen, X., Strokal, M., van Vliet, M. T. H., Fu, X., Wang, M., Ma, L., & Kroeze, C. (2022). In-stream surface water quality in China: A spatially-explicit modelling approach for nutrients. Journal of Cleaner Production, 334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.130208

Ural-Janssen, A., Kroeze, C., Meers, E., & Strokal, M. (2024). Large reductions in nutrient losses needed to avoid future coastal eutrophication across Europe. Mar Environ Res, 197, 106446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106446

Wang, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Rijneveld, R., Beier, F., Bak, M. P., Batool, M., Droppers, B., Popp, A., van Vliet, M. T. H., & Strokal, M. (2024). A triple increase in global river basins with water scarcity due to future pollution. Nature Communications, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-44947-3