VIC-WUR: Wageningen’s Hydrological Modelling Framework

The VIC-WUR modelling framework is based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model (Liang et al., 1994; Hamman et al.,2018), a grid-based macro-scale hydrological model that solves both the surface energy balance and water balance equations. VIC can be used at various spatial and temporal resolutions, making it useful for a wide range of applications from local to global scale.  

Our VIC-WUR development team contributes to the ongoing development of VIC5.1 led by the VIC development team of the Computational Hydrology group at the University of Washington. Currently, we focus on integrating new modules that explicitly represent human impacts on water resources in current and future climates. 

WUR has developed several additional modules for VIC, including: 

• Integrated river routing
• Dam and Reservoir operations
• Anthropogenic water use  
• Environmental flow requirements  

Additionally, VIC-WUR can be dynamically coupled, at various spatial scales, to: 

• A crop growth and production model, WOFOST  
• A groundwater flow model, based on MODFLOW6 

The combination of these couplings has resulted in four distinct frameworks: 

• VIC-WUR
• VIC-WUR WOFOST
• VIC-WUR MODFLOW
• VIC-WUR MODFLOW WOFOST (in development) 

The core VIC-WUR framework incorporates any or all of the above modules and is used to study atmosphere–land surface–water interactions under both natural and human-impacted conditions at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. 
Within the Watar Systems and Global Change group, VIC-WUR has been widely applied in global change impact and scenario studies (Haddeland et al., 2014; van Vliet et al., 2013; van Vliet et al., 2016), and contributes to international model intercomparison projects such as WaterMIP and ISIMIP (Haddeland, 2011; Prudhomme et al., 2014). 

VIC-WUR is also part of hydrological model ensembles for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), where it produces key datasets such as: 

• Hydrology-related climate impact indicators based on EURO-CORDEX projections
• A 7-month operational seasonal forecast system using SEAS5 meteorological forcing, including skill assessments (Fig 2)

These forecast ensembles provide skillful predictions of river discharge anomalies up to three to four months ahead, offering insights into the likelihood of below-normal, normal, or above-normal flow conditions. Studies have shown that the initial soil moisture conditions are the dominant source of forecast skill year-round, with snow conditions playing a major role in spring and early summer (Greuell et al., 2018; 2019).

Coupling VIC-WUR with the C version of the WOFOST (WOFOST-C) crop model creates the VIC-WUR WOFOST framework. This model simulates the biophysical processes governing water availability and crop growth under varying water and nutrient limitations, across spatial scales from global to regional (Droppers et al., 2021). 

Applications include assessing climate change mitigation scenarios and agricultural adaptation strategies, helping to quantify sustainable irrigation practices and crop productivity (Droppers et al., 2022). Ongoing research extends this work to evaluate water–food–climate interactions in emerging economies. 

Current research focuses on the two-way coupling of VIC-WUR with MODFLOW6-based groundwater models, aiming to improve understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions and the trade-offs between groundwater pumping, crop production, and environmental sustainability. 

This development, largely supported by the ERC Starting Grant project GROW, enables VIC-WUR to simulate groundwater dynamics at global, continental, and basin scales and in combination with crop models like WOFOST-C. 

Current Activities 

Ongoing efforts at WUR include: 

• Further improving two-way VIC–MODFLOW coupling (GROW project)
• Using VIC-WUR hydrological outputs to drive water quality models (e.g. MARINA, GloWPa)
• Expanding the multi-model seasonal forecast ensembles within C3S
• Developing more efficient code and couplings (e.g. a Julia-based version)
• Enhancing model calibration through multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) 

• Evaluation of five hydrological models across Europe and their suitability for making projections under climate change
  Greuell, J.W. , Andersson, J. , Donnelly, C. , Feyen, L. , Gerten, D. , Ludwig, F. , Pisacane, G. , Roudier, P. , Schaphoff, S. (2015) European Geosciences Union (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ) - p. 10289-10330.
• Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results
  Haddeland, I. , Clark, D. , Franssen, W.H.P. , Ludwig, F. , Voss, F. , Arnell, N.W. , Bertrand, N. , Best, M. , Folwell, S. , Gerten, D. , Gomes, S. , Gosling, S. , Hagemann, S. , Hanasaki, N. , Harding, R. , Heinke, J. , Kabat, P. , Koirala, S. , Oki, T. , Polcher, J. , Stacke, T. , Viterbo, P. , Weedon, G.P. , Yeh, P. (2011) Journal of Hydrometeorology (2011), Volume: 12, Issue: 5 - ISSN 1525-755X - p. 869-884.
• Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change
  Haddeland, I. , Heinke, J. , Biemans, H. , Eisner, S. , Florke, M.F. , Hanasaki, N. , Konzmann, M. , Ludwig, F. (2014) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2014), Volume: 111, Issue: 9 - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 3251-3256.
• Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
  Prudhomme, C. , Giuntoli, L. , Robinson, E.L. , Clark, D.B. , Arnell, N.W. , Dankers, R. , Fekete, B.M. , Franssen, W.H.P. (2014) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2014), Volume: 111, Issue: 9 - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 3262-3267.
• Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change
  van Vliet, M.T.H. , van Beek, L.P.H. , Eisner, S. , Flörke, M. , Wada, Y. , Bierkens, M.F.P. (2016) Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions (2016), Volume: 40 - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 156-170.