Climate change risk and low Emission potential for the agricultural sector in Nickerie and Coronie-Saramacca, Suriname

Samenvatting

The recent climate projections analysis for the Nickerie and Coronie-Saramacca study area highlights significant climate change challenges affecting agriculture, such as increased hot days and nights, decreased annual precipitation, and rising sea levels causing saltwater intrusion and coastal inundation, particularly underlined with high emission scenarios in the latter half of the century. Climate adaptation planning requires defined timeframes; changes in indicators are moderate until mid-century. Short-term challenges faced by Nickerie’s rice farmers underline the influence of natural variability, distinguishing it from long-term climate change, thus needing distinct adaptation strategies for current versus long-term issues. Effective risk analysis depends on enhanced monitoring, data sharing, and considering environmental and social factors. Among crops, rice and banana are more vulnerable to future climate conditions, while adapting to long-term drying trends in high-emission scenarios may involve storing and using upstream freshwater with suitable infrastructure. Collaboration with farmers is crucial in identifying viable adaptation strategies. A systemic approach, accounting for trade-offs, is advised for agricultural changes, considering unintended effects like increased water demand due to altered water management. Addressing salinization requires multifaceted strategies integrating improved crop, water, and soil management. To mitigate maladaptation risks, careful design and assessment of adaptation strategies are vital. A comprehensive, iterative approach, entailing diverse factors and stakeholder involvement, is essential for cultivating resilient, sustainable responses to climate change.