Uncertainty analysis of SMART2-SUMO2-P2E-MOVE4 : the nature planner soil and vegetation model chain

Samenvatting

Models and model chains can provide a powerful tool to evaluate government policies regarding, e.g., nitrogen deposition or climate change. Since decisions based on model simulations can have a major impact on society, it is important to know the accuracy and uncertainty of the model simulations. This report offers an account of the uncertainty in the heart of the model chain of ‘Nature Planner’. This chain consists of a soil model (SMART2), a vegetation succession model (SUMO2) and a plant species prediction model (MOVE4). Uncertainty was introduced in the most important model parameters, as well as two important input maps; a soil map and a groundwater map.