Climate change is redrawing Europe's agricultural map
Europe's food supply is unlikely to be threatened by climate change in the coming decades, but where food is produced is already starting to change. As drought and heat increasingly affect Southern Europe, agricultural production is gradually shifting northwards. For the Netherlands, this may create opportunities, but only if the sector adapts to growing challenges such as water scarcity, salinisation and increased pest & disease pressures.
These are among the conclusions of two Wageningen University & Research (WUR) studies examining the impacts of climate change on global food production, European food security and the future competitiveness of Dutch agriculture.
Food security in Europe remains robust
According to the researchers, agriculture in Europe will be less severely affected by climate change than in many other parts of the world. However, the impacts will vary considerably across the continent. Southern Europe is expected to face more frequent droughts, heat stress and water shortages, while Northern Europe will benefit from longer growing seasons. As a result, agricultural production zones are gradually moving northwards.
Despite these shifts, the availability of key food crops in the European Union is not expected to be at risk. Food prices are likely to increase and become more volatile, however, which could affect lower-income households in particular.
“Compared with many other regions in the world, Europe is in a relatively favourable position,” says Siemen van Berkum, researcher at Wageningen Social & Economic Research. “But that does not mean we can be complacent. Climate change is altering production patterns, trade flows and prices. Policymakers and businesses need to anticipate those changes now.”
Reliance on imports creates vulnerabilities
While the EU is a major food producer and exporter, it remains heavily dependent on imports of products such as soybeans, oilseeds, cocoa, coffee and tropical fruits. Many of these commodities come from a relatively small number of countries that are themselves highly vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events.
This means that climate-related disruptions elsewhere in the world have knock-on effects that impact the availability and affordability of important agricultural inputs and food products in Europe. The researchers point to several ways of reducing these risks, including greater resource efficiency, circular use of raw materials, increased production of protein crops within Europe and a broader range of trade partners.
Opportunities and challenges for Dutch agriculture
At first glance, climate change may appear to create favourable conditions for Dutch agriculture. A warmer climate and longer growing season could make it possible to cultivate crops that are currently associated with Southern Europe. Some existing Dutch crops may also become relatively more competitive.
However, the researchers emphasise that climate change will also bring substantial risks to the Netherlands. More frequent heatwaves, droughts, soil degradation, salinisation and increasing pressure from pests and diseases could reduce yields and threaten agricultural resilience.
“The idea that Dutch agriculture will automatically benefit from climate change is far too simplistic,” says Van Berkum. “There may be new opportunities, but there will also be new risks. The key question is how effectively we adapt through innovation, investment and smart land use.”
Four pathways for adaptation
One report identifies four strategic pathways that could help Dutch agriculture remain competitive in a changing climate. These include strengthening climate-resilient food supply chains, expanding controlled-environment agriculture such as greenhouse horticulture, making more efficient use of limited space and increasing the production of legumes and other plant proteins.
Rather than focusing on producing larger volumes, the researchers argue that the future of Dutch agriculture lies in resilience, innovation and high-value production. By building on its strengths in technology, logistics and knowledge, the Netherlands can continue to play a leading role in European food security, even as climate zones shift across the continent.
Read the publications
The studies Climate change impacts on global food production, international trade and food security in the EU and Opportunities and threats for the Dutch agricultural sector arising from shifting climate zones in Europe were conducted by Wageningen Social & Economic Research and commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature.
