European Forest Resource analysis tools EFISCEN

In a changing world and climate, it is of vital importance to identify the state of the forests around the world. The European Forest Resource analysis tools project the development of European forest resources under various policy and forest management scenarios, in close cooperation with the European Forest Institute (EFI). The models aim to complement other national projection models, by giving a consistent and comparable approach for all countries for European-wide projections.

The models provide output in terms of timber stock, wood increment, harvest, species composition, carbon stocks and fluxes in biomass and soil. Derived indicators give further information on biodiversity, recreation value, biodiversity and vulnerability to fire and wind.

The most important models are EFISCEN and EFISCEN-Space. Both models are empirical and thus rely on national forest inventory (NFI) or similar data for parameterization and initialization. For the EFISCEN model, NFI data are aggregated locally, while EFISCEN-Space requires tree-level information per NFI plot. Both models provide output in terms of timber stock, wood increment, harvest, species composition, carbon stocks and fluxes in biomass and soil. Derived indicators give further information on biodiversity, recreation value, biodiversity and vulnerability to fire and wind.

The European Forest Information SCENario Model (EFISCEN) is an age-class based matrix model, originally developed for Sweden by Ola Sallnäs in the late 1980s and further developed by EFI and WENR since 1995. NFI data are aggregated by region, species, site class and/or owner to represent the current age-class structure. Due to its flexible structure, the model can be parameterized for all countries in Europe. It provides projections up to 50-60 years at 5-year intervals. The model has been used in many projects to scale up results from local or regional case studies to the European level. Such scenarios are mainly determined by management actions, but the model can also take into account changes in forest area, as well as changes in growth e.g. due to climate change. In the EFSOS II study it was for the first time coupled to a global wood products trade model to study international effects of increased or decreased availability of European resources. More information on the model can be found here.

EFISCEN-Space is under development since 2006, as a successor of the EFISCEN model. It is a diameter-class model, operating at the stand level with growth driven by environmental datasets with pan-European coverage. This set-up allows handling a wide variety of stand types (also mixed and uneven-aged) and management options, at the level of individual NFI plots, located anywhere in Europe. The state of each plot for every simulation step of one year is expressed as a distribution of number of trees over diameter classes, per species or species group (currently 20 species groups). At the plot level EFISCEN-Space distinguishes the ecological processes of tree growth, tree mortality, tree ingrowth and soil biomass decomposition, and management processes such as tree harvesting and tree planting. The known location (plot coordinates) allows coupling of the modelled processes to exogenous location descriptors in terms of soil, weather and climate. In the future, interactions with processes operating at the landscape level and/or country level will be added, but these are not part of the current version of EFISCEN-Space. EFISCEN-Space is modular, such that depending on the aim of the application and resources available, modules can operate on different levels of detail, or can be excluded if not relevant. Currently the model is applied to 15 countries in Europe that have made their detailed NFI data available for this modelling effort.

The development of EFISCEN-Space model profited from numerous national and international projects including several Framework Programmes from the European Commission as well as the Horizon 2020 grant from Netherlands' Ministry of Research.

Additional funding and co-funding of the EU-projects was received from various projects under the Knowledge Base programmes of the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security.

• EFISCEN-Space 1.0 model documentation and manual
  Schelhaas, Mart-Jan , Hengeveld, Geerten , Filipek, Sara , König, Louis , Lerink, Bas , Staritsky, Igor , de Jong, Anjo , Nabuurs, Gert-Jan (2022)

  Wageningen: Wageningen Environmental Research (Report / Wageningen Environmental Research 3220) - ISBN: 9789464475357
  

• Climate-Smart Forestry in Russia and potential climate change mitigation benefits
  Lerink, B.J.W. , Hassegawa, M. , Kryshen, Alexander , Kovalev, Anton , Kurbanov, Eldar , Nabuurs, G.J. , Moshnikov, Sergei , Verkerk, Pieter Johannes (2020)
• How much wood can we expect from European forests in the near future?
  Lerink, B.J.W. , Schelhaas, M. , Schreiber, R. , Aurenhammer, H. , Kies, Uwe , Vuillermoz, M. , Ruch, P. , Pupin, C. , Kitching, A. , Kerr, Gary , Sing, Louise , Calvert, A. , Ní Dhubháin, Áine , Nieuwenhuis, M. , Vayreda, J. , Reumermann, P. , Gustavsonn, G. , Jakobsson, R. , Little, D. , Thivolle-Cazat, Alain , Orazio, Christophe , Nabuurs, G.J. (2023)
• Next-generation information to support a sustainable course for European forests
  Nabuurs, Gert Jan , Verweij, Peter , van Eupen, Michiel , Pérez-Soba, Marta , Pülzl, Helga , Hendriks, Kees (2019)
• Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences 0705 Forestry Sciences Georgii Alexandrov
  Nabuurs, Gert-Jan , Arets, Eric J.M.M. , Schelhaas, Mart-Jan (2018)
• Climate-Smart Forestry: mitigation implact in three European regions
  Nabuurs, G.J. , Verkerk, P.J. , Schelhaas, M. , González-Olabarria, J.R. , Trasobares, A. , Cienciala, E. (2018)
• Can European forests meet the demands of the bioeconomy in the future? Wood supply alongside environmental services
  Nabuurs, G.J. , Schelhaas, M. , Hendriks, C.M.A. , Hengeveld, G.M. (2014)
• First sign of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass
  Nabuurs, G.J. , Lindner, M. , Verkerk, P.J. , Gunia, K. , Deda, P. , Michalak, R. , Grassi, G. (2013)
• Actual European forest management by region, tree species and owner based on 714,000 re-measured trees in national forest inventories
  Schelhaas, Mart-Jan , Fridman, Jonas , Hengeveld, Geerten M. , Henttonen, Helena M. , Lehtonen, Aleksi , Kies, Uwe , Krajnc, Nike , Lerink, Bas , Ní Dhubháin, Áine , Polley, Heino , Pugh, Thomas A.M. , Redmond, John J. , Rohner, Brigitte , Temperli, Cristian , Vayreda, Jordi , Nabuurs, Gert-Jan , Hanewinkel, Marc (2018)
• Species-specific, pan-European diameter increment models based on data of 2.3 million trees
  Schelhaas, M. , Hengeveld, G.M. , Heidema, A.H. , Thürig, Esther , Rohner, Brigitte , Vacchiano, G. , Vayreda, Jordi , Redmond, John , Socha, J. , Fridman, Jonas , Tomter, Stein , Polley, Heino , Barreiro, Susana , Nabuurs, G.J. (2018)
• Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe
  Schelhaas, M.J. , Nabuurs, G.J. , Hengeveld, G.M. , Reyer, C. , Hanewinkel, M. , Zimmermann, N.E. , Cullmann, D. (2015) 

EFSOS II

• UNECE/FAO 2011 Forest Sector Outlook Study 2010-2030 Geneva Timber and Forest Study Paper 28 ECE/TIM/SP/28. United Nations, Geneva. European Forest Sector Outlook Study II, 2010-2030, UNECE/FAO Study Paper No. 28

EFSOS III

• UNECE/FAO 2021 Forest Sector Outlook Study 2020-2040 Geneva Timber and Forest Study Paper 51 ECE/TIM/SP/51. United Nations, Geneva.

• Overview of methods and tools for evaluating future woody biomass availability in European countries
  Barreiro, Susana , Schelhaas, Mart Jan , Kändler, Gerald , Antón-Fernández, Clara , Colin, Antoine , Bontemps, Jean Daniel , Alberdi, Iciar , Condés, Sonia , Dumitru, Marius , Ferezliev, Angel , Fischer, Christoph , Gasparini, Patrizia , Gschwantner, Thomas , Kindermann, Georg , Kjartansson, Bjarki , Kovácsevics, Pál , Kucera, Milos , Lundström, Anders , Marin, Gheorghe , Mozgeris, Gintautas , Nord-Larsen, Thomas , Packalen, Tuula , Redmond, John , Sacchelli, Sandro , Sims, Allan , Snorrason, Arnór , Stoyanov, Nickola , Thürig, Esther , Wikberg, Per Erik (2016)