A review of prediction models for E. coli in urban surface waters

Summary

Urban surface water is increasingly used for contact recreation. Predicting Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations in these waters can support early warning of bathers and explain the dynamics of this faecal pollution indicator. This study provides the first overview of the scientific knowledge on E. coli prediction models for freshwater in cities. Modelling techniques for urban waters are comparable to those for other freshwater environments, with multiple linear regression being the most frequently used approach. While previously reviewed E. coli prediction models for freshwater beaches predominantly target lakes, urban models mainly target rivers. We found indications that model performance for urban rivers is lower than for recreational beach water in rivers in general. Reported performance metrics indicate that not all relevant sources are captured by the models. Future research should solve the lack of insight into model performance for specific applications and verify the suggested directions to improve models’ accuracy.